Rare Earth Price Charts: Historical Trends and Volatility Analysis

Last updated: January 23, 2026

Rare earth prices exhibit extreme volatility driven by supply shocks, geopolitical events, and cyclical demand. Historical price data reveals structural inflection points (2010-2011 export controls, 2018-2022 trade wars, 2023-2025 EV transition). Understanding historical volatility patterns and benchmark pricing helps identify valuation extremes and investment timing windows.

Historical Price Extremes and Volatility

2010-2011: Chinese Export Control Spike

Trigger: China announced rare earth export quotas (2010); environmental ministry shutdowns (2011)
Nd price: $6/kg (2010) → $90/kg (2011); +1,400% spike
Dy price: $20/kg → $280/kg; +1,300% spike
Tb price: $30/kg → $500/kg; +1,567% spike
Duration: 18-24 months; then normalization over 2012-2014
Key lesson: Export control events create multi-year price supercycles

2014-2016: Supply Glut and Price Collapse

Trigger: Mountain Pass reopening (USA); Molycorp expansion; Chinese oversupply
Nd price: $80/kg → $25/kg; -69% collapse
Dy price: $250/kg → $70/kg; -72% collapse
Impact: Producer bankruptcies; consolidation wave (Molycorp bankruptcy 2015)
Duration: 2 year bear market; prices eventually stabilized 2017

2020-2021: COVID-19 Disruption and Recovery

Trigger: Mining shutdowns (Q1 2020); economic stimulus → EV boom (Q3 2020)
Nd price: $35/kg (Feb 2020) → $42/kg (Dec 2020) → $65/kg (2021); +86% recovery
Volatility: Largest spike since 2011; magnet REEs led recovery
Key driver: EV production forecasts; supply chain tightness

2022-2024: Trade War and EV Transition Era

Nd price trajectory: $45/kg (2022) → $110/kg (2023 peak) → $70/kg (2024); volatile consolidation
Dy price: $180/kg (2022) → $320/kg (2023) → $220/kg (2024); extreme volatility
Drivers: US sanctions on China, EV capex acceleration, supply announcements
Current volatility: ±30-40% swings common; structural scarcity supporting high baseline

Price Benchmarks by Element (Current)

Element	Typical Range (2024)	Historical High	Historical Low	Volatility (Annual %)
Neodymium (Nd)	$50-85/kg	$110/kg (2023)	$6/kg (2010)	±25-35%
Praseodymium (Pr)	$70-120/kg	$180/kg (2023)	$8/kg (2010)	±28-38%
Dysprosium (Dy)	$180-280/kg	$320/kg (2023)	$20/kg (2010)	±35-50%
Terbium (Tb)	$1,500-2,500/kg	$3,000/kg (2023)	$30/kg (2010)	±40-60%
Cerium (Ce)	$0.80-1.50/kg	$3/kg (2011)	$0.50/kg (2014)	±10-15%
Lanthanum (La)	$3-6/kg	$15/kg (2011)	$1.50/kg (2015)	±12-18%

Price Volatility Patterns and Cycles

Seasonal Patterns

Q1: Typically weak; post-holiday inventory clearing
Q2-Q3: Moderate; summer production slowdowns
Q4: Strong; vehicle production peak in November-December; +10-15% typical premium
Magnet REE timing: Most pronounced in Nd/Pr (automotive); less for Dy/Tb

Cyclical Patterns (12-36 months)

Accumulation phase: 6-9 months of gradual price buildup as supply tightens
Spike phase: 1-3 months of sharp price acceleration (supply shock or demand surge)
Plateau phase: 3-6 months of elevated prices as market equilibrates
Decline phase: 6-12 months of price normalization (new supply, demand weakness)
Typical cycle length: 24-36 months from trough to trough

Structural Inflection Points

2010-2011: Chinese export controls → structural spike; 5-year supercycle
2015: Mountain Pass bankruptcy → supply compression; 3-year recovery
2020-2021: EV transition accelerates → structural scarcity begins
2023-present: Geopolitical scarcity + EV demand + supply deficit = new structural regime

Price Forecasting and Valuation Metrics

Valuation Framework: Price-to-Supply Ratio

Historical valuation model: Price correlates inversely to spare global production capacity
When spare capacity >20%: Prices trend toward $10-25/kg (Nd)
When spare capacity 5-20%: Prices trend toward $30-60/kg (Nd)
When spare capacity <5% (deficit): Prices can spike to $80-150/kg (Nd)
Current state (2024): Capacity utilization 95%+; spare capacity <2%; structural deficit pricing justified

Price Targets by Scenario

Bear case (supply relief 2025-2026): Nd $40-55/kg; Dy $120-160/kg; Tb $800-1,200/kg
Base case (continued scarcity): Nd $65-85/kg; Dy $200-280/kg; Tb $1,500-2,200/kg
Bull case (structural deficit accelerates): Nd $110-150/kg; Dy $350-450/kg; Tb $2,500-4,000/kg

Key Price Indicators to Monitor

Real-Time Leading Indicators

Chinese export license announcements: Regulatory restrictions → price spike within 1-2 weeks
EV production guidance updates: Major OEM volume increases → Nd price up 1-3 months later
Wind turbine order books: Industry report improvements → Nd/Pr price moves 3-6 months forward
Separation capacity utilization: If >98%, expect price acceleration

Data Sources for Price Tracking

Asian Metal (China): Most comprehensive; covers 95% of global transactions
Rare Element Resources and USGS: Official US pricing data
Industrial Minerals Journal: Third-party verification and analysis
Company guidance: Producer earnings calls for production volume hints

Volatility Trading vs. Long-Term Positioning

For Traders (3-12 month holding periods)

Buy emerging supply concerns; sell on supply relief announcements
Volatility: ±30-40% within-year swings are normal; expect 3-5 reversals yearly
Momentum trading on China policy announcements typically 2-4 week profit windows

For Long-Term Investors (3+ year horizon)

Focus on structural supply deficit (EV growth vs separation capacity expansion)
Volatility is opportunity for accumulation; don't panic sell on price declines
2024-2028 supply deficit thesis rewards patient capital despite near-term price swings

Key Takeaways

Historical volatility: ±30-50% annual swings are normal for magnet REEs
Magnet REE prices (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) are 3-10x more volatile than LREE
Structural scarcity 2024-2030 supports elevated baseline prices vs historical averages
Seasonal peak in Q4 (vehicle production); buyers who need supply pay premium
Export control events trigger 5-year supercycles; geopolitical risk premium justified in pricing