Global Rare Earth Reserves and Resources: Supply Horizon Analysis
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Global rare earth reserves are concentrated in China (37%), Vietnam (18%), Brazil (12%), and Russia (10%). However, reserves do not equal production; China controls 60%+ of actual mining and 85-95% of processing. Understanding resource distribution vs production capacity is critical for supply forecasting.
Total Global Reserves by Country
| Country | Reserves (Million Tonnes REE) | % Global | Reserve Life Index (years) | Development Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 37-42 | 37% | 60-80 years | Actively mined; capacity constraints limit production |
| Vietnam | 18-22 | 18% | 200+ years | Development halted (2020); political uncertainty; potential 2025+ restart |
| Brazil | 12-15 | 12% | 100+ years | Exploration/early development; Araxá mine historic but not current production |
| Russia | 10-12 | 10% | 500+ years | Bastnaesite; not actively exploited; geopolitical complexity |
| India | 6-7 | 6% | 50+ years | Monazite; minor production; domestic use |
| Australia | 2-3 | 2% | 30+ years | Lynas Mount Weld; HREE resource; production growing |
| USA | 1-2 | 1% | 20+ years | Mountain Pass; REE-dominant among US assets; expansion underway |
| Myanmar | N/A (not officially reported) | 5-8% estimated | Unknown | Monazite; artisanal/informal mining; geopolitical instability |
| Rest of World | 2-4 | 3-4% | Unknown | Greenland, Tanzania, Brazil (other deposits) |
Reserve Life Index and Production Sustainability
Reserve Life Calculation
- Method: (Total Reserves) / (Annual Production) = Years of supply
- Global REE reserves: ~120 million tonnes REE equivalent
- Global production: ~600,000 tonnes REE/year
- Global reserve life: ~200 years at current production rates
- Caveat: Production rates are constrained by Chinese policy, not resource scarcity
Reserve Life by Element (Critical Constraint)
| Element | Global Production (tonnes/yr) | Reserve Base (tonnes) | Reserve Life (years) | Supply Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neodymium (Nd) | ~60,000 | ~12 million | 200 years | Low (abundant resource) |
| Praseodymium (Pr) | ~6,000 | ~1.2 million | 200 years | Low (abundant resource) |
| Dysprosium (Dy) | ~8,000 | ~0.8 million | 100 years | Medium (slower depletion but still limited) |
| Terbium (Tb) | ~600 | ~0.06 million | 100 years | High (scarcest; rate of depletion material) |
| Cerium (Ce) | ~50,000 | ~12 million | 240 years | Very Low (oversupply; challenge is utilization not scarcity) |
Resource vs. Reserve Distinction
JORC/NI 43-101 Classification
- Measured resource: Geologically proven; high confidence; ~90% accuracy
- Indicated resource: Reasonable confidence; ~70% accuracy; requires more drilling
- Inferred resource: Preliminary; <50% confidence; exploration-stage risk
- Ore reserve: Economically extractable; includes mining cost assumptions; subset of resources
Reserve vs Resource Methodology Impact
- Resource = "in ground" potential (may never be mined if uneconomical)
- Reserve = "mineable" certainty (assuming favorable prices and costs)
- Conversion ratio: Typically 20-50% of inferred resources → ore reserves (rest is waste)
- Investment implication: High % of inferred resources = higher execution risk
Geographic Resource Concentrations by Element
HREE (Dysprosium, Terbium, Gadolinium) Concentration
- Monazite (China, India, Myanmar): 3-5 ppm Tb, 5-10 ppm Dy
- Ionic clay (China, Myanmar, Vietnam): 300-1,000 ppm HREE; highest concentration globally
- Geographic fact: 90%+ of recoverable HREE in Asia; Western HREE deposits extremely limited
- Supply implication: HREE scarcity is structural; cannot be easily displaced to other regions
LREE (Cerium, Lanthanum, Neodymium) Concentration
- Bastnaesite (China, USA, Mexico): 70%+ of LREE content; highest purity
- Monazite (distributed globally): Lower LREE concentration but globally available
- Geographic diversity: LREE can be sourced from multiple regions; less concentrated than HREE
- Supply implication: LREE scarcity is market-driven (demand low) not geological
Major Development Projects and Resource Addition
Identified Development Pipeline
| Project | Location | Identified Resource | Target Production Start | Element Focus | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Pass Expansion | California, USA | ~2 million tonnes REE | 2026-2027 | Nd/Pr dominant | Capex phase; permitting ongoing |
| Lynas Expansion (Kalgoorlie II) | Australia | ~60,000 tonnes/year capacity | 2025-2026 | HREE specialist (Dy, Tb) | Capex approved; construction starting |
| Rare Element Resources (Bear Lodge) | Wyoming, USA | ~1.2 million tonnes REE | 2027-2028 | Nd/Pr | Development phase; permitting in progress |
| Vietnam Rare Earth (stalled) | Vietnam | ~22 million tonnes REE resource | TBD (2025+?) | Mixed LREE/HREE | Halted 2020; political uncertainty; potential restart |
| Greenland Kvanefjeld (delayed) | Greenland | ~9 million tonnes REE resource | Indefinite delay | Mixed; uranium co-product | Political backlash; project viability uncertain |
Supply Adequacy Analysis 2024-2030
Demand vs Supply Forecast
- Global magnet REE demand: Growing 15-20% CAGR (EV, wind growth)
- Identified supply additions: Mountain Pass, Lynas expansion = ~40,000-60,000 tonnes Nd equivalent/year by 2027
- Demand growth: ~100,000 tonnes additional Nd equivalent/year by 2030
- Supply-demand mismatch: Structural deficit of 30-40,000 tonnes/year by 2030 likely
Supply Gaps by Element
| Element | 2024 Global Production | 2030 Demand Forecast | 2030 Supply (Current Projects) | Gap Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nd | ~60,000 tonnes | ~100,000-120,000 tonnes | ~75,000-85,000 tonnes | Deficit 25-40k; sustained scarcity |
| Pr | ~6,000 tonnes | ~12,000-15,000 tonnes | ~7,000-9,000 tonnes | Deficit 4-6k; supply follows Nd |
| Dy | ~8,000 tonnes | ~15,000-20,000 tonnes | ~8,000-10,000 tonnes | Deficit 7-10k; extreme scarcity |
| Tb | ~600 tonnes | ~1,500-2,000 tonnes | ~700-800 tonnes | Deficit 1-1.2k; worst shortage |
Mining Productivity and Ore Grade Trends
Ore Grade Decline
- Mountain Pass (USA): 5-8% REE oxide ore (highest grade globally)
- Bastnaesite average: 3-5% REE oxide (degrading over time)
- Monazite: 2-4% REE (lower grade but also radioactive)
- Ionic clay (HREE): 0.5-1.5% REE (low grade but HREE rich)
- Trend: Ore grades declining globally; processing costs increasing
Stripping Ratio (Waste to Ore)
- Mountain Pass: ~2:1 stripping ratio (optimal)
- Baotou (China): ~5-8:1 stripping ratio (large waste volumes)
- Impact: Higher stripping ratios = increased environmental cost + economic breakeven price
Key Takeaways
- Global REE reserves abundant (120+ million tonnes); 200+ year supply at current production
- HREE (Dy, Tb) geographically concentrated in Asia; cannot be easily displaced
- Reserve life index misleading; production is policy-constrained, not resource-constrained in China
- 2024-2030 supply deficit likely for magnet REEs despite identified projects (Nd, Dy, Tb)
- New projects require 3-7 years to ramp production; timing misalignment with demand growth